Current research projects:
Project of the Russian Science Foundation (18-18-00254) "Quantitative analysis and forecasting of risks of socio-political destabilization in the countries of the Afrasian macrozone of instability"
Head of the PhD project of the RFBR (19-311-90024) " Structural conditions for the dynamics of the conflict of elites as a mechanism for the collapse of states"
Head of the PhD project of the RFBR (20-311-90004)" The influence of the Arab spring on the political stability of the Arab monarchies"
Some publications on this topic:
Korotayev A., Shishkina A. (2020) Relative Deprivation as a Factor of Sociopolitical Destabilization: Toward a Quantitative Comparative Analysis of the Arab Spring Events // Cross-Cultural Research. Cross-Cultural Research 2020, Vol. 54 (2-3) 296-318. https://doi.org/10.1177/1069397119882364
Turchin P, Korotayev A (2020) The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment // PLoS ONE 15/8 (2020): e0237458. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237458
Leonid Issaev & Andrey Korotayev (2020): Russia’s Policy towards the Middle East: The Case of Yemen // The International Spectator 55/3 (2020): 132–147. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1790258
Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev (2020): Seven Weaknesses of the U.S., Donald Trump, and the Future of American Hegemony // World Futures, https://doi.org/10.1080/02604027.2020.1801309
Korotayev A, Vaskin I, & Tsirel S (2019) Economic Growth, Education, and Terrorism: A Re-Analysis // Terrorism and Political Violence. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2018.1559835
Korotayev, A., Meshcherina, K., & Shishkina, A. (2018). A Wave of Global Sociopolitical Destabilization of the 2010s: A Quantitative Analysis // Democracy and Security, 14 (4), 331-357.
Korotayev A, Bilyuga S, Shishkina A. (2018). GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis // Cross-Cultural Research 2018, Vol. 52 (4) 406-440.
Korotayev, Andrey, Ilya Vaskin, Stanislav Bilyuga, and Ilya Ilyin. (2018). Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: A Re-Analysis // Cliodynamics 9/1: 59–118.
Korotayev, A., Bilyuga, S., Belalov, I., Goldstone, J. (2018). Oil prices, socio-political destabilization risks, and future energy technologies // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2018. Volume 128, March 2018, Pages 304-310
Ortmans, O., Mazzeo, E., Mescherina, K., & Korotayev, A. Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability in the United Kingdom after 1960: A Demographic Structural Analysis // Cliodynamics 8/2 (2017): 113–158
Korotayev, A., Grinin, L., Bilyuga, S., Meshcherina, K., & Shishkina, A. Economic Development, Sociolpolitical Destabilization and Inequality // Russian Sociological Review. 2017. Vol. 16. No. 3, 30–57.
Akaev, A., Korotayev, A., Issaev, L., & Zinkina, J. Technological development and protest waves: Arab spring as a trigger of the global phase transition? // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 116 (2017) 316-321.
Slinko E., Stanislav Bilyuga, Julia Zinkina, Korotayev A. Regime Type and Political Destabilization in Cross-National Perspective: A Re-Analysis // Cross-Cultural Research 2017, Vol. 51 (1) 26–50.
